In a plotline that would stretch the credibility of a movie audience, the cause and effect in the Japanese disaster is still unfolding. Earthquake - triggers tsunami - triggers power loss - triggers backup generators to fire up at power plant which fail - triggers battery backup to start which fail - triggers overheating nuclear core - triggers risk aversion in financial markets and widespread health risks.
That is where we find ourselves this morning. Further knock-on effects include a fall in copper, tin, zinc etc as the markets assume the global nuclear construction program is likely to face problems and Germany’s decision to abandon plans to extend the life of its nuclear plants proves that to be a valid concern. That weakens the currencies of the countries which produce these commodities like Canada and Australia. It has also, perversely enough, caused a strengthening of the Japanese Yen for two reasons. Firstly, Japanese investors are unwinding trades which involve exchange rate risk and secondly, Japanese Companies are bringing funds home in advance of the investment that will be needed in the inevitable rebuilding of Japan’s infrastructure.
The repatriation of funds by Japanese companies has another knock on effect on the currencies of the countries that Japanese investors traditionally gravitate towards when Interest rate yield is a driving force; currencies like the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar which both weakened overnight. The Australian Dollar was also weakened to some degree by comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia which now thinks the Queensland floods will have a greater impact on the economy than they first thought.
We get the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision today but it is an irrelevance when the BOJ is pushing 23 trillion Yen into the markets and their base rate is already 0%.
Elsewhere the Pound had a better day yesterday after the credit ratings agency, Fitch gave its seal of approval to the UK government’s plans for cost and debt cutting. The UK government will take heart from the endorsement of its plans by the agency because it means it will keep their debt servicing costs lower and make it easier to roll over bonds as and when they reach maturity. In straight terms, it’ll make it easier and cheaper for the government to borrow more money when it needs to.
The Euro also had a reasonable day but stayed within ranges while the markets try to absorb the implications of the expanded scope of the European Financial Stability Facility and rumours sill rage over imminent funding problems for Portugal and the inability of the EU to reach an agreement with Ireland over Ireland’s corporate tax incentives.
Elsewhere, the US Dollar is in the spotlight ahead of this evening’s interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. No change is forecast; in fact no change is forecast until perhaps May 2012 but we always listen hard for signs of a change in the quantitative easing volume or scope. The disparity between different elements of US economic data is enough to keep the Fed on hold for now. Improving labour market data and growth in manufacturing output are not yet being reflected in the housing or retail markets and that is a clear concern for the Federal Reserve. It is no surprise that the US Dollar remains weak. However, there is still a fair amount of safe haven buying of the USD going on so a collapse in the value of the USD is unlikely and further US Dollar strength is a much more likely scenario. Today brings a flurry of US data to keep tongues wagging so don’t blink.
And finally, I think I have discovered why models do well in those jungle celebrity programs. A somewhat pneumatic Israeli model Orit Fox was being photographed with a large boa constrictor which took offence to being manhandled and bit Orit on her boob. The model was given a tetanus jab and recovered well although she perhaps had to have that side inflated again. The snake sadly died from silicone poisoning. So if you have to go into the jungle, it seems the best equipment to take with you to protect you from snakes is a pair of substantial chest enhancements. That is perhaps not a moral you would ever have thought you would read in a currency report but we like to offer health and safety advice where we can.
Quotes on safety
The best car safety device is a rear-view mirror with a cop in it.
Dudley Moore
The best car safety equipment would be a big spike in place of the airbag. It is amazing how careful people are when their own life is so obviously in peril.
Anon
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Thursday, 10 March 2011
Now what’s the word; lacklustre.....dull.....tedious..... I guess all are appropriate for the markets during yesterday because traders in the Far East and Australasia were waiting for the New Zealand interest rate decision and traders in the northern and western hemispheres were waiting for the Bank of England decision which comes today and the monthly bulletin from the Europe\an Central Bank; also released this morning. Even the sharp drop in the UK trade deficit wasn’t enough to move the markets to any significant degree but it did stop the slide in Sterling and the Pound ended the day at better levels.
Moody’s, the credit ratings agency surprised a few traders by downgrading their rating of Spain’s economy and maintaining their negative outlook on the Spanish economy overall. Whilst the idea had been doing the rounds as a rumour, the early move by moody’s was a bit of a surprise. Nevertheless, the move had clearly been largely expected so the Euro failed to weaken more than a smidgeon on the move.
The overnight action on New Zealand interest rates was pretty much bang on expectation; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to stick with the script and cut their base lending rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% in an effort to support the economy through the trauma of the Christchurch earthquake. This move as so widely telegraphed by the Reserve Bank and by the NZ Prime Minister that the market reaction was small enough to be missed by anyone blinking at the time. It does though keep the NZ Dollar at the weaker end of its range.
Today’s big news in this part of the world is the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. I don’t know why we are all so het up over it because I cannot imagine the BOE monetary Policy Committee will go from a 6-3 vote for interest rates to remain on hold to a majority in favour of a hike in just one month but there is always that possibility. Sterling is as flat as an incredibly flat thing ahead of this announcement and, if the BOE doesn’t alter its policy, we won’t know how the voting went until a fortnight’s time when the minutes are released so the Pound is right to be boring. However, whilst I don’t suppose too many tradesr were boy scouts, being prepared in this market is all about managing the risk of a surprise and that is precisely what we are seeing this morning.
Elsewhere, the high privce of oil won’t have passed you by if you have had to fuel your car or your boiler recently and the effect is being seen in the value of the oil exporters as well. The difference is that they are making more money while we are all forking it out. Nevertheless, the Canadian Dollar is clearly benefitting from the extra income and we can see it pushing both the Pound and the dollar lower.
And we often talk about losing our way because the SatNav failed but there is another problem for navigation and that is that the North Pole is moving. It’s not an ice slide or anything but the magnetic pole is constantly shifting and it now looks like it is headed for Russia. It has been in Canada for the last 200 years or so but the rapidity of the move to Russia means our magnetic field could even flip over, making the magnetic North in fact the new Magnetic south. It’s all a bit beyond me but I guess it means that if we bump into another planet, we will repel it in the same way as any magnate does, so that’s good then. Or have I got this all wrong? I am worried about all these birds, whales and wildebeest who could end up migrating north for the winter though poor things.
Currency - GBP / Australian Dollar
Regular readers will have noted the continued strength of The Australian economy during the financial crisis despite the natural disasters that the country has had to face over the last couple of months. Australian employment has been particularly robust increasing for the previous 17 months! All that changed overnight as overall employment declined by 10,100 confounding expectations. However the details of the report were slightly stronger than the headline with an increase in full time employment and an unchanged unemployment rate. It is a volatile series at the best of time and the market was little moved.
With little on the macro front to excite investors I would expect the current ranges to be respected. Technically we are still trapped below the trend-line going back to the middle of September which is currently showing resistance around A$1.6130 and until that level breaks we cannot confidently expect higher exchange rates for Australian Dollar buyers.
Ricky Nelson
Physics conundrum of the day
If you are in a spaceship that is travelling at the speed of light, and you turn on the headlights, does anything happen?
Steven Wright
Moody’s, the credit ratings agency surprised a few traders by downgrading their rating of Spain’s economy and maintaining their negative outlook on the Spanish economy overall. Whilst the idea had been doing the rounds as a rumour, the early move by moody’s was a bit of a surprise. Nevertheless, the move had clearly been largely expected so the Euro failed to weaken more than a smidgeon on the move.
The overnight action on New Zealand interest rates was pretty much bang on expectation; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to stick with the script and cut their base lending rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% in an effort to support the economy through the trauma of the Christchurch earthquake. This move as so widely telegraphed by the Reserve Bank and by the NZ Prime Minister that the market reaction was small enough to be missed by anyone blinking at the time. It does though keep the NZ Dollar at the weaker end of its range.
Today’s big news in this part of the world is the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. I don’t know why we are all so het up over it because I cannot imagine the BOE monetary Policy Committee will go from a 6-3 vote for interest rates to remain on hold to a majority in favour of a hike in just one month but there is always that possibility. Sterling is as flat as an incredibly flat thing ahead of this announcement and, if the BOE doesn’t alter its policy, we won’t know how the voting went until a fortnight’s time when the minutes are released so the Pound is right to be boring. However, whilst I don’t suppose too many tradesr were boy scouts, being prepared in this market is all about managing the risk of a surprise and that is precisely what we are seeing this morning.
Elsewhere, the high privce of oil won’t have passed you by if you have had to fuel your car or your boiler recently and the effect is being seen in the value of the oil exporters as well. The difference is that they are making more money while we are all forking it out. Nevertheless, the Canadian Dollar is clearly benefitting from the extra income and we can see it pushing both the Pound and the dollar lower.
And we often talk about losing our way because the SatNav failed but there is another problem for navigation and that is that the North Pole is moving. It’s not an ice slide or anything but the magnetic pole is constantly shifting and it now looks like it is headed for Russia. It has been in Canada for the last 200 years or so but the rapidity of the move to Russia means our magnetic field could even flip over, making the magnetic North in fact the new Magnetic south. It’s all a bit beyond me but I guess it means that if we bump into another planet, we will repel it in the same way as any magnate does, so that’s good then. Or have I got this all wrong? I am worried about all these birds, whales and wildebeest who could end up migrating north for the winter though poor things.
Currency - GBP / Australian Dollar
Regular readers will have noted the continued strength of The Australian economy during the financial crisis despite the natural disasters that the country has had to face over the last couple of months. Australian employment has been particularly robust increasing for the previous 17 months! All that changed overnight as overall employment declined by 10,100 confounding expectations. However the details of the report were slightly stronger than the headline with an increase in full time employment and an unchanged unemployment rate. It is a volatile series at the best of time and the market was little moved.
With little on the macro front to excite investors I would expect the current ranges to be respected. Technically we are still trapped below the trend-line going back to the middle of September which is currently showing resistance around A$1.6130 and until that level breaks we cannot confidently expect higher exchange rates for Australian Dollar buyers.
Ricky Nelson
Physics conundrum of the day
If you are in a spaceship that is travelling at the speed of light, and you turn on the headlights, does anything happen?
Steven Wright
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
The pound was sold heavily on news that Bank of England hawk Andrew Sentence who retires in June, will be replaced by Ben Broadbent. Mr. Broadbent is not as hawkish on inflation as Mr. Sentence, that’s impossible without growing wings and gaining an appetite for mice. He is however highly likely to vote for interest rate hikes given some of his recent comments whilst at Goldman Sachs. Broadbent believes official GDP estimates exaggerate the scale of the recession, spare capacity in the economy is less than official estimates, and rising commodity prices are part of a persistent trend rather than temporary shocks that can be looked-through. This makes the 170 pip sell-off in sterling a bit overdone and more a case of traders taking profit on short dollar positions than a sterling negative.
UK data released this morning was mixed. The February British Retail Consortium retail sales monitor showed like-for-like sales fell a very weak -0.4%. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors UK house price index showed the market was stabilising. There is now however a big divide between London, where prices are gaining and the rest of the UK where prices are falling. The increase in stamp duty for houses over £1m has seen a surge in activity before the increase is introduced next month. This is the first time in 7-months that the survey has been positive about London property prices.
Overnight in Australia we had the NAB February Business confidence index which surged to 14 from 4 in January.
Opinions remain spilt in New Zealand over whether the Reserve Bank of NZ will cut interest rates, and if so by how much. The vast majority of analysts expect a rate cut of 0.25%, but a few major banks are predicting a larger cut of 0.5%. The kiwi dollar strengthened overnight after an article in the Herald reported HSBC calling for no change in the Official Cash Rate from 3.00% on due to high inflation which will be exacerbated by the earthquake rebuild. HSBC are alone in this view, but we will have to wait until Thursday to see who is right. In the meantime expect continued choppy volatility to persist.
The Greek government are fuming over the three-notch downgrade of their credit rating by Moody's on Monday. The government have called the move "completely unjustified". Moody's cut the rating to "highly speculative" status which is not much above “junk” status as they feel the Greeks will default on their big fat debt overtime.
Keep an ear out for news on Portugal heading toward the “bail-out” door also.
There is not a great deal in the way of official data releases today, however several European Central Bank officials have already been on the newswires, so it won’t necessarily be uneventful.
The Libyan crisis is causing oil to spike which has pushed the Euro to $1.40+ against the greenback. If tensions escalate in Libya expect the Euro to push toward $1.41-1.43. Rumours Gaddafi is negotiating an exit strategy out of the country should push the Euro back to more realistic levels.
I mentioned last week that a London restaurant was selling breast milk ice cream named Baby Gaga. A report in the New York Post states Lady Gaga is suing the restaurant for trademark infringement. Her lawyers have called the ice cream which is served by waitresses dressed as the singer, as “deliberately provocative and to many people, nausea-inducing”.
Have a good day.
Quote
I had plenty of pimples as a kid. One day I fell asleep in the library. When I woke up, a blind man was reading my face. Rodney Dangerfield
UK data released this morning was mixed. The February British Retail Consortium retail sales monitor showed like-for-like sales fell a very weak -0.4%. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors UK house price index showed the market was stabilising. There is now however a big divide between London, where prices are gaining and the rest of the UK where prices are falling. The increase in stamp duty for houses over £1m has seen a surge in activity before the increase is introduced next month. This is the first time in 7-months that the survey has been positive about London property prices.
Overnight in Australia we had the NAB February Business confidence index which surged to 14 from 4 in January.
Opinions remain spilt in New Zealand over whether the Reserve Bank of NZ will cut interest rates, and if so by how much. The vast majority of analysts expect a rate cut of 0.25%, but a few major banks are predicting a larger cut of 0.5%. The kiwi dollar strengthened overnight after an article in the Herald reported HSBC calling for no change in the Official Cash Rate from 3.00% on due to high inflation which will be exacerbated by the earthquake rebuild. HSBC are alone in this view, but we will have to wait until Thursday to see who is right. In the meantime expect continued choppy volatility to persist.
The Greek government are fuming over the three-notch downgrade of their credit rating by Moody's on Monday. The government have called the move "completely unjustified". Moody's cut the rating to "highly speculative" status which is not much above “junk” status as they feel the Greeks will default on their big fat debt overtime.
Keep an ear out for news on Portugal heading toward the “bail-out” door also.
There is not a great deal in the way of official data releases today, however several European Central Bank officials have already been on the newswires, so it won’t necessarily be uneventful.
The Libyan crisis is causing oil to spike which has pushed the Euro to $1.40+ against the greenback. If tensions escalate in Libya expect the Euro to push toward $1.41-1.43. Rumours Gaddafi is negotiating an exit strategy out of the country should push the Euro back to more realistic levels.
I mentioned last week that a London restaurant was selling breast milk ice cream named Baby Gaga. A report in the New York Post states Lady Gaga is suing the restaurant for trademark infringement. Her lawyers have called the ice cream which is served by waitresses dressed as the singer, as “deliberately provocative and to many people, nausea-inducing”.
Have a good day.
Quote
I had plenty of pimples as a kid. One day I fell asleep in the library. When I woke up, a blind man was reading my face. Rodney Dangerfield
Monday, 7 March 2011
Last week ended pretty much as we expected; with a positive US employment report but the numbers were not as positive as we many analysts had hoped. The non-farm payroll count was much as expected but the fact that the employment rate fell from 9% to 8.9%is being heralded as the start of a proper recovery for the US economy. That is perhaps a little premature because there are many hurdles between here and full recovery but the markets liked the data nonetheless. The most encouraging sign as that whilst government departments shed 30,000 jobs, the private sector created 222,000. I am sure the UK government would like that kind of shift in the labour force. The US Dollar didn’t rally on these positive data largely because the growth in jobs has yet to filter into a rise in retail spending so there is no extra pressure on US interest rates at this stage.
The Dollar was weaker against the Euro and Sterling but the Euro is currently king of the castle as far as these three are concerned. The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike interest rates whilst the Bank of England probably should do so but is erring on the side of growth over and above inflation but the head of the European Central Bank made it pretty clear last week that EU interest rates could rise as soon as 1 month from today. The Eurozone base rate is currently 1% whereas the UK base is just 0.5% and the US base is on a variable rate between 0% and 0.25%; of virtually zero in other words. Therefore a hike in the Eurozone interest rate will make the second most liquid currency in the world, by far the most lucrative amongst these three in terms of interest rate yields. And interest rates are not that attractive elsewhere either; with the Japanese base rate at virtually 0% and the Swiss likewise. However, there appears to be a growing wave of investors buying into the Yen and Swiss Franc as safe havens and this is happening at the expense of the US Treasury certificates. You could probably spend a day analysing the reasons for this shift and still not reach a conclusion but there is no doubting the move is happening.
In fact, it is only when you get to places like Australia and South Africa that you start to see a reasonable return. No wonder the Australian Dollar and South African Rand have been strengthening of late. This is especially true of Australia where the Reserve Bank has made no secret of their willingness to hike interest rates in the months ahead. New Zealand also pays a higher interest rate yield with a 3% base rate but both the New Zealand Prime Minister and Reserve Bank have heavily hinted that and interest rate cut is on its way to help the economy recover from the damage that the Christchurch earthquake inflicted.
Back to the Euro though and it still amazes me that this currency is so strong when the debate over the levels of debt within the Eurozone and the exit strategy are still so very far from being resolved. The debate is polarising political opinion as well as those of economists. EU socialists announced in Greece in Saturday an alternative to the German/French economy recovery plan with a scheme to spend their way out of recession through job creation and, if I have read this correctly, they plan to raise the money to do so through a Eurozone wide bond; a plan that the French and Germans oppose because it represents the rest of the EZ using the good credit ratings of Germany and France to borrow at lower interest rates. As Germany has already underwritten billions in loans for other members of the Eurozone, it would be hard to sell that concept to the German Public and Angela Merkel is already on a sticky wicket.
Speaking of Cricket, is this the most yoyo tournament the English team has ever been in or what! First we are outplayed by the Irish and now we beat South Africa. Whatever next. But I digress.
The other major influences at the moment are obviously commodity prices; especially oil which is being driven higher by the events in Libya and the nervousness over what will happen if similar calls for democracy are seen in Saudi Arabia. A ban on demonstrations in Saudi Arabia may not be enough to stop the rising tide but when King Canute told the seas to stop, he didn’t attack it with helicopter gunships after his feet got wet.
The week ahead isn’t a massive one for data but we do get plenty of manufacturing and producer price data along with the UK interest rate decision. The mood seems to be one of nervous tension while the Middle East simmers and recovery is so very varied across the globe.
While we wait for further reason to trade, we can all mourn the demise of the Bristol car company. After 65 years of producing slightly plain looking but very expensive hand built cars, the company has gone into administration. Let’s hope they find an owner. It’s not that I particularly like the cars but I’d hate to see yet another British institution fall. I can't help thinking Katie Price should buy the company but I can't fathom why I think that.
Anyway, my final story is one of turning adversity into triumph. A 25 tonne boulder which crashed into the hall way of a house near Christchurch during the earthquake has been sold on ebay for NZ$ 60,000. Now that’s a financial success story and a very nice garden feature as well. Gonna need a bigger Ute though fellas.
Currency - GBP / US Dollar
GBP/USD has continued to rally over the course of this week, trading to its highest levels in over a year. This actually highlights an interesting change in market mentality. In the past geo-political events, (such as the ones sweeping the middle east at present) would cause a stampede of investors towards the safe haven of US treasury bills with the knock-on effect of strengthening the dollar. On this occasion, treasuries and hence the dollar have been largely unaffected by the increased tensions. What seems to be having a bigger impact on the US dollar is the surging oil price, which has hit its highest levels since Nov 2008 due to supply concerns and has the ability to be a drag on the US economy going forward.
However, US data on the whole has been steadily improving in the last few months, with the unemployment rate dropping to 8.9% even with the labour force expanding my 60k. The labour market has been the last piece of the jig-saw as far as the US recovery is concerned, with the Federal Reserve concerned the moderate rate of recovery is not enough to trigger dramatic improvements in the labour market hence the continuation of QE2.
Warren Buffet has joined the more hawkish members of the FOMC in suggesting that it may be time for the FED to scale back its stimulus measures.
At present, we’re testing long term resistance between 1.629 & 1.635 which we need to break to be confident of a move higher. Support comes in around 1.604 which looks pretty solid at present, so expect a ranges to be tight (reflecting the current uncertainties) and place orders accordingly until further direction is seen.
Currency - GBP / Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar’s recent strength continues this week with CADUSD posting its highest level since November 2007. The ongoing unrest in the middle-east continues to push global oil prices higher and there’s also impressive recent economic releases that have kept the Canadian dollar well bid.
Earlier this week Canadian GDP Q4 GDP accelerated faster than expected, advancing by 3.3% following an upwardly revised 1.7% gain the previous three months. Compare this with the UK’s downgrade to our Q4 GDP which came in -0.6% last Friday and you can begin to understand the downturn in GBPCAD.
The Bank of Canada elected to keep rates on hold this month with a fairly neutral tone, but stronger conditions in US manufacturing and domestically in Canada illustrate the potential for a move higher in Canadian interest rates in the near term.
GBPCAD currently finding support 1.55 but there’s a lack of momentum above 1.60 so use the current trading range to your advantage.
Currency - GBP / New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar though is still at the weak end of its short term scale after the International Monetary Fund warned of slower NZ economic growth. I don’t think anyone is in any doubt that the Christchurch earthquake has rocked the NZ economy and the NZ Prime Minister has already signalled an expectation of lower interest rates but having an external body state the same fact carries a bit of extra weight.
It’s widely expected that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be cutting the interest rate next Thursday 10th March and the market may well have largely priced this in, hence the push up on GBPNZD up to 2.20. Depending on the size of the interest rate cut, 25 or 50 basis points, traders may take profit on the move and NZD may take back some of these losses - the focus will be on midweek and whether there are further comments from Alan Bollard, Governor of Reserve Bank of New Zealand, or Bill English, Finance Minister as to the longer term interest rate and economic outlook for NZ.
Currency - GBP / Australian Dollar
The likelihood is that Australian interest rates will rise in the months ahead and the rumours are that despite floods, cyclones and general mayhem, the Australian economy is doing rather well. Obviously higher commodity prices help boost income from exports and the seemingly unstoppable demand from China will ensure the income stream doesn’t dry up.
So when investors see this kind of robustness in the economy and the possibility of an even higher interest rate return in the future, it is no wonder that the Sterling - Australian Dollar exchange rate can’t rally. As you can see from the chart, we are trapped below a number of trend line and retracement resistance levels between A$1.61 and A$ 1.63. Until those levels break - and there is no guarantee of that at this stage - Australian Dollar buyers should consider this to be the top of the range.
Currency - GBP / Euro
The Sterling - Euro exchange rate is telling a story of interest rate expectation at the moment. On the UK side of things, inflation is ramping away and a third of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England is voting for interest rate hikes but Governor of the BOE is keen to tell us that there is no need for interest rate hikes because the inflationary effects are external in nature.
On the Euro side of things, the European Central Bank is facing lower inflation but is much keener to tell us that we should expect higher interest rates - possibly as soon as their next meeting in April. Good UK data boosted Sterling but the BOE comments whipped the rug out from beneath it and talk of higher interest rates is boosting the Euro even though the Eurozone structure and funding is a bit of a mess. In the meantime, the Sterling - Euro exchange rate is trapped between €1.1350 and €1.1950. I advocate using this range as your guide.
Quote
Smooth seas do not make skilful sailors.
Proverb
The Dollar was weaker against the Euro and Sterling but the Euro is currently king of the castle as far as these three are concerned. The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike interest rates whilst the Bank of England probably should do so but is erring on the side of growth over and above inflation but the head of the European Central Bank made it pretty clear last week that EU interest rates could rise as soon as 1 month from today. The Eurozone base rate is currently 1% whereas the UK base is just 0.5% and the US base is on a variable rate between 0% and 0.25%; of virtually zero in other words. Therefore a hike in the Eurozone interest rate will make the second most liquid currency in the world, by far the most lucrative amongst these three in terms of interest rate yields. And interest rates are not that attractive elsewhere either; with the Japanese base rate at virtually 0% and the Swiss likewise. However, there appears to be a growing wave of investors buying into the Yen and Swiss Franc as safe havens and this is happening at the expense of the US Treasury certificates. You could probably spend a day analysing the reasons for this shift and still not reach a conclusion but there is no doubting the move is happening.
In fact, it is only when you get to places like Australia and South Africa that you start to see a reasonable return. No wonder the Australian Dollar and South African Rand have been strengthening of late. This is especially true of Australia where the Reserve Bank has made no secret of their willingness to hike interest rates in the months ahead. New Zealand also pays a higher interest rate yield with a 3% base rate but both the New Zealand Prime Minister and Reserve Bank have heavily hinted that and interest rate cut is on its way to help the economy recover from the damage that the Christchurch earthquake inflicted.
Back to the Euro though and it still amazes me that this currency is so strong when the debate over the levels of debt within the Eurozone and the exit strategy are still so very far from being resolved. The debate is polarising political opinion as well as those of economists. EU socialists announced in Greece in Saturday an alternative to the German/French economy recovery plan with a scheme to spend their way out of recession through job creation and, if I have read this correctly, they plan to raise the money to do so through a Eurozone wide bond; a plan that the French and Germans oppose because it represents the rest of the EZ using the good credit ratings of Germany and France to borrow at lower interest rates. As Germany has already underwritten billions in loans for other members of the Eurozone, it would be hard to sell that concept to the German Public and Angela Merkel is already on a sticky wicket.
Speaking of Cricket, is this the most yoyo tournament the English team has ever been in or what! First we are outplayed by the Irish and now we beat South Africa. Whatever next. But I digress.
The other major influences at the moment are obviously commodity prices; especially oil which is being driven higher by the events in Libya and the nervousness over what will happen if similar calls for democracy are seen in Saudi Arabia. A ban on demonstrations in Saudi Arabia may not be enough to stop the rising tide but when King Canute told the seas to stop, he didn’t attack it with helicopter gunships after his feet got wet.
The week ahead isn’t a massive one for data but we do get plenty of manufacturing and producer price data along with the UK interest rate decision. The mood seems to be one of nervous tension while the Middle East simmers and recovery is so very varied across the globe.
While we wait for further reason to trade, we can all mourn the demise of the Bristol car company. After 65 years of producing slightly plain looking but very expensive hand built cars, the company has gone into administration. Let’s hope they find an owner. It’s not that I particularly like the cars but I’d hate to see yet another British institution fall. I can't help thinking Katie Price should buy the company but I can't fathom why I think that.
Anyway, my final story is one of turning adversity into triumph. A 25 tonne boulder which crashed into the hall way of a house near Christchurch during the earthquake has been sold on ebay for NZ$ 60,000. Now that’s a financial success story and a very nice garden feature as well. Gonna need a bigger Ute though fellas.
Currency - GBP / US Dollar
GBP/USD has continued to rally over the course of this week, trading to its highest levels in over a year. This actually highlights an interesting change in market mentality. In the past geo-political events, (such as the ones sweeping the middle east at present) would cause a stampede of investors towards the safe haven of US treasury bills with the knock-on effect of strengthening the dollar. On this occasion, treasuries and hence the dollar have been largely unaffected by the increased tensions. What seems to be having a bigger impact on the US dollar is the surging oil price, which has hit its highest levels since Nov 2008 due to supply concerns and has the ability to be a drag on the US economy going forward.
However, US data on the whole has been steadily improving in the last few months, with the unemployment rate dropping to 8.9% even with the labour force expanding my 60k. The labour market has been the last piece of the jig-saw as far as the US recovery is concerned, with the Federal Reserve concerned the moderate rate of recovery is not enough to trigger dramatic improvements in the labour market hence the continuation of QE2.
Warren Buffet has joined the more hawkish members of the FOMC in suggesting that it may be time for the FED to scale back its stimulus measures.
At present, we’re testing long term resistance between 1.629 & 1.635 which we need to break to be confident of a move higher. Support comes in around 1.604 which looks pretty solid at present, so expect a ranges to be tight (reflecting the current uncertainties) and place orders accordingly until further direction is seen.
Currency - GBP / Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar’s recent strength continues this week with CADUSD posting its highest level since November 2007. The ongoing unrest in the middle-east continues to push global oil prices higher and there’s also impressive recent economic releases that have kept the Canadian dollar well bid.
Earlier this week Canadian GDP Q4 GDP accelerated faster than expected, advancing by 3.3% following an upwardly revised 1.7% gain the previous three months. Compare this with the UK’s downgrade to our Q4 GDP which came in -0.6% last Friday and you can begin to understand the downturn in GBPCAD.
The Bank of Canada elected to keep rates on hold this month with a fairly neutral tone, but stronger conditions in US manufacturing and domestically in Canada illustrate the potential for a move higher in Canadian interest rates in the near term.
GBPCAD currently finding support 1.55 but there’s a lack of momentum above 1.60 so use the current trading range to your advantage.
Currency - GBP / New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar though is still at the weak end of its short term scale after the International Monetary Fund warned of slower NZ economic growth. I don’t think anyone is in any doubt that the Christchurch earthquake has rocked the NZ economy and the NZ Prime Minister has already signalled an expectation of lower interest rates but having an external body state the same fact carries a bit of extra weight.
It’s widely expected that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be cutting the interest rate next Thursday 10th March and the market may well have largely priced this in, hence the push up on GBPNZD up to 2.20. Depending on the size of the interest rate cut, 25 or 50 basis points, traders may take profit on the move and NZD may take back some of these losses - the focus will be on midweek and whether there are further comments from Alan Bollard, Governor of Reserve Bank of New Zealand, or Bill English, Finance Minister as to the longer term interest rate and economic outlook for NZ.
Currency - GBP / Australian Dollar
The likelihood is that Australian interest rates will rise in the months ahead and the rumours are that despite floods, cyclones and general mayhem, the Australian economy is doing rather well. Obviously higher commodity prices help boost income from exports and the seemingly unstoppable demand from China will ensure the income stream doesn’t dry up.
So when investors see this kind of robustness in the economy and the possibility of an even higher interest rate return in the future, it is no wonder that the Sterling - Australian Dollar exchange rate can’t rally. As you can see from the chart, we are trapped below a number of trend line and retracement resistance levels between A$1.61 and A$ 1.63. Until those levels break - and there is no guarantee of that at this stage - Australian Dollar buyers should consider this to be the top of the range.
Currency - GBP / Euro
The Sterling - Euro exchange rate is telling a story of interest rate expectation at the moment. On the UK side of things, inflation is ramping away and a third of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England is voting for interest rate hikes but Governor of the BOE is keen to tell us that there is no need for interest rate hikes because the inflationary effects are external in nature.
On the Euro side of things, the European Central Bank is facing lower inflation but is much keener to tell us that we should expect higher interest rates - possibly as soon as their next meeting in April. Good UK data boosted Sterling but the BOE comments whipped the rug out from beneath it and talk of higher interest rates is boosting the Euro even though the Eurozone structure and funding is a bit of a mess. In the meantime, the Sterling - Euro exchange rate is trapped between €1.1350 and €1.1950. I advocate using this range as your guide.
Quote
Smooth seas do not make skilful sailors.
Proverb
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)